I. PRICE AND FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY
1. Domestic price
1.1. Catfish prices
In the first week after Tet, catfish price in the Mekong River Delta was likely to rise sharply.
Specifically, catfish buying price of traders over the week increased averagely from 300 – 500 VND/kg against the week before Tet, up 16,500 VND/kg for whiteflesh catfish and 16,300 VND/kg for yellowflesh catfish. This was the highest catfish price for the recent year.
Material shortage and instability continued to be the main reasons of sharp increase in catfish price. According to the statistics of MARD, by the end of 2009, catfish area of the whole region was 6,022 ha, equal to 100.4% as planned. However, the whole region production reached only 1.09 million tons, equivalent to 91% as planned in 2009.
1.2. Shrimp price
The black tiger shrimp price in the Mekong River Delta over the week continuously broke the ceiling price, reaching the record for recent one year.
Specifically, the black tiger shrimp price sized 25-30 heads/kg of the enterprises increased by 18.2% (equivalent to 20,000 VND/kg) against the week before Tet, up 130,000 VND/kg. Particularly, according to Agromonitor, the black tiger shrimp purchasing price sized 20 heads/kg of traders in Tra Vinh rose from 10,000 VND/kg to 18,000 VND/kg, ranging around 140,000-148,000 VND/kg; the one sized 30 heads/kg purchasing price rose quite sharply about 10,000-30,000 VND/kg, depending on sizes. Normally, official shrimp crop starts from December annually and it can be harvested in the following 4-5 months. Thus, the current price may remain up to mid-March when some shrimp areas are early harvested.
Meanwhile, contrary to the black tiger shrimp price trend, white shrimp price in the Mekong River Delta was likely to reduce. The white shrimp wholesale price sized 95 -100 heads/kg was 58,000 VND/kg, down 10.8% (equivalent to 7,000 VND/kg) against January 2010.
1.3. Mackerel price
After Tet, the markerel price in HCMC reduced 10,000 VND/kg.
Over the week, the markerel price in Binh Dien market (HCMC) immediately reduced 10,000 VND/kg, down 75,000 VND/kg. Mackerel price dropped sharply because after Tet, the weather was favorable, most of fishing boats going out to sea in mid-December (Lunar month) in many localities came back with the average production of over 10 tons of fresh fish (mainly mackerels and rays, etc). Therefore, prices of many kinds of sea fish were likely to decrease compared to the time right before Tet. However, according to the forecast, if the petroleum price rises high in the coming time, it can greatly affect the wild fishing of the fishermen, pushing up seafood price again.
2. World price
2.1. The U.S.
Over the week, we saw the slight recovery of the shrimp market in New York (the U.S.). White shrimp codes rose sharply in price against the previous week. The white shrimp price from the West Coast of Gulf of Mexico No 1 sized 21/25 rose 0.1 USD/pound, up 4.1 USD/pound; No2 sized U 12 and 16/20 also up 0.1 USD/pound to 8.4 USD/pound and 4.6 USD/pound respectively. Thai white shrimp price sized 16/20 increased by 0.15 USD/pound to 4.75 USD/pound. At present, in the U.S., consumers like more and more the white shrimp because of its reasonable price and quite attractive taste against the black tiger shrimp.
According to the latest data of the U.S. Fishery Association, in 2009, the U.S imported totally 1.21 billion pound of all shrimp varieties, down 2.5% against the same period of the previous year.
Especially, Vietnam’s black tiger shrimp codes continued to see a sharp increase in price for the consecutive third week.
Specifically, Vietnam’s black tiger shrimp price sized 16/20 and 21/25 raised 0.05 USD/pound, up 5.7 USD/pound and 4.75 USD/pound, respectively. Shrimp price sized U15 increased by 0.2 USD/pound, reaching the record of 7.4 USD/pound – this was the highest price for recent one year. Vietnam’s black tiger shrimp price, especially codes having big size in the U.S. rose sharply in the recent time because of supply shortage while demand of the market remained quite stable. At present, main shrimp harvest will start in one more month in Vietnam, enterprises meet many difficulties in purchasing the materials. Most of commodities, offering in the U.S. at present are items, previously purchased by enterprises.
2.2. Europe
The fresh fishery market in Europe recovered slowly.
In Mercabarna (Spain), although the prices of some kinds of seafood over the week rose against the previous week, they remained low in general. Specifically, the fresh shrimp price rose 5.63 EUR/kg, up 41.39 EUR/kg. Frozen white shrimp price increased by 1.14 EUR/kg, up 12 EUR/kg; frozen prawn price rose 0.12 EUR/kg, up 4.7 EUR/kg.
According to the latest data in the central fish market (belong to Mercabarna fishery market Mercabarna), selling fishery volume in 2009 reached 84.24 thousand tons, up 3.8% against 2008. However, its average selling price dropped 9.6%, down 5.7 EUR/kg – the lowest price recorded from 2003. Of which, fresh and frozen fishery prices averagely reduced 7% and 18.6%, respectively.
2.3. Japan
After remaining stable for a long time, the black tiger shrimp price in Kansai increased sharply again, over the week.
Specifically, by the end of 25th February session, India’s black tiger shrimp price sized 21/25 rose 50 yen/1.8kg against the previous week to 1,900 yen/1.8kg. Vietnam’s black tiger shrimp price sized 16/20 rose 50 yen/1.8kg to 2,150 yen/1.8kg; sized 21/25 up 100 yen/kg to 1,800 yen/1.8kg; sized 26/30 up 50 yen/1.8kg, to 1,650 yen/1.8kg. Therefore, Vietnam is the only country which seeing a simultaneous price increase in shrimp codes, offered in this market.
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In the previous week, shrimp price in Kansai was improved because of quite limited shrimp supply.
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3. Factors affecting price
3.1. Breeding fish price
Over the week, the breeding fish price in An Giang was unchanged while the breeding fish prices in some other provinces were likely to increase again.
Specifically, in An Giang, the breeding catfish price sized 2 cm/head was unchanged at 700 VND/head, the one sized 2.5 cm/head was 1,250 VND/head.
Meanwhile, in Dong Thap, according to the DARD of the province, the breeding catfish price sized 1.2 cm/head was around 300-400 VND/head, up 30-50 VND/head; the one sized 1.5 cm/head was 500–600 VND/head. That situation occurred because the breed catfish volume on the market within 2 early months of the year reduced 50% against the same period of 2009.
3.2. Animal feed price
The animal feed price in the domestic market increased continuously.
At present, the price of some main animal feed materials such as slice cassava and fish meal, etc increased continuously and broke the ceiling price. Specifically, the slice cassava price by the end of 19th February was 4,600 VND/kg. The current price rose 206.7% (equivalent to 3,200 VND/kg) against January 2009. In the previous week, only bran price saw the decline in price of 167 VND/kg to 4,833 VND/kg because the Southern provinces are in main Winter-Spring harvest with high productivity of about 6 -7 tons/ha.
One of another causes of the animal feed domestic price increase in recent time was that the output price of some of fishery products (such as catfish, shrimp) increased averagely around 5%- 25% against the late quarter III, 2009. In the coming time, the input price of some materials such as electricity, petroleum will be adjusted increasingly; feed price is forecast to further increase.
Contrary to the domestic trend, the soybean meal price in the international market declined continuously.
Specifically, in the CBOT market, after 24th February session, the March soy-bean meal price reduced 4.8 USD/ton against the 22nd February session, down 276.9 USD/ton.
Meanwhile, catfish price is forecast to keep increasing as demand from major import markets like the U.S., Russia, Germany and Mexico, etc… remains quite stable, forcing enterprises to continue purchasing new material fish to meet demand for processing and exporting.
Peru’s fish meal price decreased slightly 10 USD/ton for basic 65% protein to 1,560 – 1,570 USD/ton. However, according to latest information, Peru’s Government decided to reduce the anchovy capture production in the coming harvest (it is estimated to start in April 2010) because of the concern that El Nino might badly affect to the anchovy supply of this country. Therefore, it is difficult for Peru’s fish meal price to drop in the coming time.
II. TRADE
1. Vietnam’s production and trade
In Dec. 2009, Vietnam’s fishery export value reached about US$ 382.1 million.
Of the figure, export value of frozen, chilled and fresh fish fillet (HS code 0304) reached US$ 141.9 million, accounting for 37.2% of the total fishery export value. The next was crustacean (HS code 0306) with the value of US$ 119.2 million, accounting for 31.2% of the total value. Sea-shells like oyster, cuttle and octopus ranked third with value of US$ 31.8 million, accounting for 8.3% of the total export value.
On the market side, Japan continued to be Vietnam’s biggest fishery import market in Dec. 2009 with the value of US$ 52.3 million; The U.S. ranked second with the value of US$ 45.8 million and the South Korea ranked third with the value of US$ 22.6 million.
In the coming time, Vietnam’s fishery export is forecast to slow down as in the early months of the year, fishery demand in markets usually drops. In addition, domestic fishery supply is also scarce in the early months; therefore, it is difficult for concentrating on fishery to promote exporting.
2. International production and trade
Retail fishery turnover at the stores in the U.S. sharply increased in 2009.
Economic crisis continued affecting consumption behavior of the American when they limited to eat out and cooked at home more regularly. This signal became clearer in US’s structure of retail fishery turnover. Specifically, by the end of week 52 (Nov. 28, 2009), weekly average fishery turnover in the U.S retail store systems reached the growth of 5.6% - highest growth compared to other food commodities.
In the U.S nationwide, average fishery turnover reached US$ 6,093/store/week, of which fresh fishery turnover was US$ 4,698/store/week (equivalent to 81.5% of the total turnover), up 6.3% against the average one of the previous year, and processed fishery turnover remained only US$ 901/store/week (accounting for 15.3% of the total turnover), up 3.3% against the average one of the previous year, and finally, other commodities (sause and fishery additives, etc.) accounted for 3.2% of the total turnover.
Fresh fishery, which was mostly consumed, was crustacean with the turnover of US$ 826/store/week, up 21.8% against the average one of the previous week. With the bottom price, average lobster turnover US$ 240/store/week, up 47.9%, which caused lobster to become one of 10 fishery items, mostly sharp consumed currently.
Fish turnover also rose 6% to US$ 2,019/store/week. Processed items made from cod and tilapia also saw quite impressive growths in turnover, reaching 22.4% and 14.6%, respectively.
Meanwhile, shrimp turnover dropped 1.3%, accounting for only 27.9% of the total fishery turnover mainly because of declined in processed shrimp turnover. Particularly, fresh shrimp turnover rose 5.3% to US$ 961/store/week, whereas processed shrimp saw the decline of 4.5% in turnover to US$ 772/store/week.
Processed fishery turnover also increased 3.3 % to US$ 930/store/week. Of 7 processed fishery items having increasing turnover in this period, processed fish took the lead with the growth of 5.5 %, reaching US$ 316/store/week; the next was processed crustacean, up 4.1% to reach US$ 283/store/week.
The trend for the past 5 years showed that weekly average turnover of fishery commodities rose 26.4%, of which processed fishery ranked first with growth of 54.1%, fresh fishery ranked second (22.5%) and lastly, other commodities (19.5%).
III. MARKET PROSPECTS
In the coming time, fishery exports like catfish and shrimp in the domestic markets are forecast to continue sharply increase and remain high.
On the shrimp side, while black tiger shrimp price is forecast to remain high, white shrimp price is forest to start reducing because at present, white shrimp raising area started harvesting. White shrimp supply is forecast to more plentiful in some upcoming weeks, causing the price to go down.
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
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Table: White shrimp price in New York (U.S.) (USD/pound)
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Date
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White shrimp in Gulf of Mexico sized 16/20
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White shrimp in Central and Southern America sized 16/20
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4/9/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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11/9/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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18/09/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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25/09/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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2/10/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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9/10/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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16/10/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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23/10/2009
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4.2
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4.4
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30/10/2009
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4.25
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4.3
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6/11/2009
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4.25
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4.35
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13/11/2009
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4.15
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4.35
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20/11/2009
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4.15
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4.35
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27/11/2009
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4.30
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4.35
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4/12/2009
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4.45
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4.40
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11/12/2009
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4.55
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4.40
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18/12/2009
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4.8
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4.4
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25/12/2009
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4.8
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4.65
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1/1/2010
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4.8
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4.65
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8/1/2010
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4.9
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4.65
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15/1/2010
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4.85
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4.85
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22/1/2010
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4.85
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4.85
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29/1/2010
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4.85
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4.85
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6/2/2010
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5.25
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4.95
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12/2/2010
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5.35
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4.95
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19/2/2010
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5.35
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4.95
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Source: Shrimpsnew.com
Table: Black tiger shrimp price in New York (U.S.) (USD/pound)
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Date
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Vietnamese black tiger shrimp sized 21/25
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Malaysian black tiger shrimp sized 21/25
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7/8/2009
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4.5
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4.45
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14/8/2009
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4.4
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4.45
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21/8/2009
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4.5
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4.4
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28/8/2009
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4.5
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4.4
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4/9/2009
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4.5
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4.35
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11/9/2009
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4.5
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4.35
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18/9/2009
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4.5
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4.35
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25/9/2009
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4.5
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4.35
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2/10/2009
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4.5
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4.35
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9/10/2009
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4.5
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4.35
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15/10/2009
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4.5
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4.45
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23/10/2009
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4.4
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4.45
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30/10/2009
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4.4
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4.45
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6/11/2009
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4.4
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4.45
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13/11/2009
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4.35
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4.45
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20/11/2009
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4.35
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4.45
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27/11/2009
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4.05
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4.50
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4/12/2009
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4.05
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4.50
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11/12/2009
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4.65
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4.50
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18/12/2009
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4.6
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4.5
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25/12/2009
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4.6
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4.5
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1/1/2010
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4.6
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4.5
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8/1/2010
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4.65
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4.6
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15/1/2010
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4.7
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4.6
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22/1/2010
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4.7
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4.6
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29/1/2010
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4.7
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4.6
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6/2/2010
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4.7
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4.8
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12/2/2010
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4.7
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4.8
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19/2/2010
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4.75
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4.8
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Source: Shrimpsnew.com
Source: AgroMonitor
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