From January until now, the ham retail price has been quite high. The ham average price in February on the markets only rose about 2% against January. In Da Nang, the February price was unchanged. Hanoi saw the sharpest price increase in February, up 6% against January.

In Tien Giang, piglet price at TCN farm was unchanged at 74,000 VND/kg.  The piglet price sized 10 kg/head (local breed) was 70,000 VND/kg.

2.  Beef

The silverside price rose sharply in 4 markets, the current  domestic price was around 137,000 – 175,000 VND/kg.  Over the week, the silverside price in HCMC rose sharpest, approximately 30%, up 175,000 VND/kg. In Da Nang, the price rose about 27%, equivalent to 35,000 VND/kg, up 165,000 VND/kg. In Can Tho and Hanoi, it rose about 10-12.5%, around at 135,000 VND/kg and 157,500 VND/kg. 

In Dien Bien province, from 17^th February to 21^st February, the epidemic appeared in 18 communes and towns of 5 suburban districts and infected 745 buffaloes, cows and 152 pigs.

Generally, the foot and mouth disease was likely to settle down provisionally. In nationwide, there were 6 provinces being infected but now there are only 2 provinces, namely Dien Bien and Nghe An.

In Huong Minh commune, Vu Quang suburban district, Ha Tinh province, there were total 19 buffaloes and cows died within nearly 10 days, causing the serious losses for raisers. At present, local vets have not found the reason of death yet. However, according to the inhabitants, they may be died because of the coldness and food shortage. 

3.  Chicken

In Lam Dong and Hanoi, original chicken carcass over the week rose 10,000 VND/kg against before Tet to 100,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, the industrial chicken price was likely to decline or stayed unchanged.  In Lam Dong, the price was unchanged at 40,000 VND/kg. In Hanoi, it dropped 1,500 VND/kg to 41,000 VND/kg compared with the price before Tet.

The live original chicken in Hanoi remained high at 80,000 VND/kg; Tra Vinh 75,000 VND/kg.

After Tet, the chicken product consumption declined quickly which caused the chicken selling price of households nationwide sharply dropped. In the North, the white live industrial chicken price declined to 22,500 VND/kg, down 5,000 VND/kg from 27,000 – 28,000 VND/kg of the time before Tet. Similarly, the one in the Central also dropped to 25,000 VND/kg (down 3,000 – 4,000 VND/kg against the one before Tet). In the South, the industrial chicken price declined sharply to 19,000 VND/kg, in some provinces, the price drop was only 13,000 VND/kg, causing the raisers to suffer from serious losses. This price is forecasted to remain by the end of March because at that time, the market may spend completely the chicken stock.

In comparison with the time before Tet, the original chicken price of households declined more slightly than the industrial chicken price. In the South, the original chicken price was around at 30,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 VND/kg compared with the week right before Tet. In the North, the one was around 32,000-34,000 VND/kg.

From 16^th February, the bird flu started appearing in Hung Hoa, Nghe An and killed 50 of 500 ducks. On 21^st February, Department of Animal Health (DAH) of this district destroyed them and carried out measures to prevent and treat the disease.

At present, there are 7 provinces in nationwide including Ca Mau, Dien Bien, Soc Trang, Kon Tum, Quang Tri, Nghe An and Nam Dinh having bird flu for less than 21 days.  

4.  Animal feed

According to the latest forecast of the USDA, in February, the corn consumption of the Ethanol industry in the US may rise against the previous forecast. This immediately raises the concern about the corn price increase. March CBOT corn price on 24 February increased by 15.25 cent/ bushel compared with the average price of the previous week to 358.25 Uscent/bushel -375.25 Uscent/bushel.

The bran price over the week in An Giang declined to 4,700 VND/kg, Tra Vinh 5,000 VND/kg.

According to Department of Livestock, the Vietnam’s the raising cost remained high against the world. In Vietnam, the pig raising cost was from 25,000 VND/kg to 28,000 VND/kg, while the one in several countries in the world such as Argentina, Brazil, the U.S. and Chile, etc. was around 11,500-15,000 VND/kg. The Director of  Department of Livestock said that Vietnam’s raising cost was high because the raising scale was small and scattered; the management and technology science levels in raising were backward; the control of disease and environment pollution have been much limited; the products did not meet enough standards of the hygiene and  food safety, etc. Especially, the input material of animal feed often changed, much depending on import sources.  

In the early days of 2010, the world’s animal feed market was likely to decline after the sharp increase by the end of 2009, which was good news for raisers.  Specifically, the March and April soy-bean import price from India declined 100 USD/tons, down 320 USD/ton; Similarly, corn and wheat price also dropped 15-50% in the last months of quarter I and the early quarter II, 2010. The sharp decline in animal feed price will positively affect the domestic raising, reducing the raising cost when farmers are still facing the problems. However, according to the animal feed production companies, the domestic animal feed price is impossible to drop within 3 months because those companies are still using previous import materials with high price.

To encourage the development of the domestic animal feed production, the Government promulgated the animal feed management rules (becoming effective from 25^th March 2010). The decree bans on producing, doing business and using animal feed varieties, out of the regulated lists or producing, importing, marketing the animal feed, which does meet relevant technical standards, issued by Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. In addition, there absolutely will be not any organizations or individuals giving the incorrect information or advertisements about the animal feed quality and origins. In case, the imports which do not meet the standards are detected, those organizations and individuals have to be responsible for withdrawing, handling and compensating for losses to the raisers.

II. MARKET MOVEMENT

According to HCMC Department of Statistics, consumer price index in the city in February rose 1.68% against the previous week and up 9.45% against the same period of the previous year. Of the figure, pork’s CPI rose 2.41%; beef 2.65%; and poultry 3.51%.

Sales department of Vissan told that 60 showrooms of this company normally operated since Jan. 4 (Lunar). Previously, from Jan. 2 (Lunar), Vissan’s slaugher-houses started to operate to timely meet fresh pork demand in the market. Also according to Director of Phu An Sinh company, the pork and chicken supply of this company would be maintained and remained stable in price from date to the end of January (Lunar). Currently, industrial chicken is priced at VND 17,000 -18,000/kg against the time before Tet, down VND 7,000 – 8,000/kg as the organization and canteens have not opened yet while the supply was much plentiful.

Live chicken price in HCMC was sharply dropping, leading to not only self-investing raisers but also the processing raisers for enterprises to meet many difficulties. After Tet, chicken was unsold; therefore, many enterprises did not collect chicken. Meanwhile, after raising for 2 and a half months, industrial chickens need selling because the continuity of raising will result in increasing feed cost while it has slow growth rate and high risk of death. On the enterprises side, chicken price dropped sharply to below VND 20,000/kg, whereas the price in the previous signed contract with raisers was over VND 22,000/kg, which also caused them to suffer from seriously losses. According to Director of Emivest Co. Ltd, selling pressure of the enterprises also contributed to dropping price more sharply. Currently, 3 large enterprises, namely CP, Japfa and Emivest may supply 1 million chickens every week. With the chicken selling pressure, enterprises are forced to reduce the selling price. However, the main consumers of industrial chicken are mainly workers and students, who are on holidays, therefore, despite price decline, purchasing power does not increase.

In Hanoi, although markets operated again, most of food and fruits, vegetables prices remained high. The limit of importing goods from the small trader and only selling in the mornings within the early days of new year caused the supply to be lower than the demand, accordingly pushing up the price. Compared to the time before Tet, the current beef price increased by approximately 20,000 VND/kg. The pork price remained high because the supplies from other provinces were not plentiful. In the supermarket system in Hanoi, the goods scarcity occurred because of low goods stock. The goods price in supermarkets was quite unchanged while the one in the markets rose high, causing the people to buy in the supermarkets, especially the fresh and fast foods. According to the market management organizations, the goods supply and demand will self-balance, the price will decline gradually after the businesses and production starts to operate again, the goods supply from the provinces to the city increase. However, after Tet the petroleum price raises and the electricity price will be adjusted, leading to many difficulties in reducing the price.

III. INTERNATIONAL MARKET

The price of live pork and frozen bellies on Chicago (the U.S.) over the early week rose about 2 – 4 uscent/lb. On Feb. 23, live pork price fluctuated around 76.3 uscent/lb, frozen bellies price was 86.2 uscent/lb.

According to the report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the world’s beef production in 2009 was estimated at 56.78 million tons, down 2.18% against the same period of 2008. Beef production dropped in most of countries: China (-6%), Russia (-2.66%), the U.S. (-2.85%), Australia (-2.73%); whereas it increased in some countries like India (5.35%), Pakistan (4.97%), Mexico (1.56%) and Canada (0.93%). The world’s beef export in 2009 was estimated at 7.1 million tons, down 380 thousand tons (5%) against 2008. Although livestock industry was facing many challenges because of the change in industrial structure and export decline for 2 consecutive years, the world’s beef export in 2010 was forecast to rise slightly (1.35%) to about 7.2 million tons. Accordingly, Brazil’s beef export was forecast to sharply rise (20%) to 1.87 million tons, ranking first in the world; the U.S up 7% to 837 million tons and India up 7%

The world’s pork production in 2009 was estimated at 100.2 million tons, rising slightly 1.7% against 2008 (1.7 million tons). China is the world’s biggest pork producer with the production of about 48.5 million tons, up nearly 5% against the previous week and accounting for 48% of the total pork production worldwide. According to FAO, the world’s pork export in 2009 was estimated to be 5.5 million tons, down 10% against the previous week due to weaker demand of some main importers (except Mexico and China). The world’s pork export in 2010 is forecast to rise 3% to 5.6 million tons. The U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, might reach about 2.1 million tons, up 7%; China 240 thousand tons, up 8.5% and South Korea 25 thousand tons, up 25%.

IV. MARKET PROSPECTS

At present, price of some meat and food commodities has been still in the price stability phase; therefore price increase happens mainly at the markets, whereas in the supermarkets and stores of some enterprises, taking part in stabilizing the price, it remains quite stable. Except the coming full-moon day when increasing purchasing power leads to push up the price, overall meat and food market by the end of January (Lunar) is likely to drop again.